October 15, 2008

Pakistan on the brink?

The recent National Intelligence Estimate of USA on Pakistan says that the situation in Pakistan "very bleak". The conclusions about the state of Pakistan in the report was: "no money, no energy, no government." The fear is that an unstable Pakistan will become a center for al-Qaeda plotting against the US.

The last time when we saw such reports were in end March and early April 1971 when Pakistan army were marching with tanks and spraying bullets on the innocent civilians in Dhaka and elsewhere in Bangladesh (then East Pakistan) in the name of quashing the rebels (how do they defend it as justice?). We have seen that that led to the independence of Bangladesh and Pakistan lost its part.

The Pakistan economy is on a free fall and reports question whether Pakistan can rescue itself from that severe blow after reeling from suicide bombers and an angry public.

However Professor Juan Cole at 'Informed Comment' says that:
I'm suspicious that all the talk about instability and 'no government' is really a way of saying that US intelligence agencies liked having a military dictatorship there much better than they like having an elected parliamentary regime.

Actually, the Pakistani bureaucracy does a fairly good job for a third world country, and the employees of the bureaucracy at the non-political level don't change with the change of governments. I don't know what they mean by 'no government.' The elected government headed by the Pakistan People's Party has a majority and is not in danger of falling.
Meanwhile an article in the Asia Times suggest that the US is trying to drag India into the Afghan fiasco:
..discussions were going on between the security establishments of India and the US for the past several months regarding an Indian military involvement in Afghanistan. Washington has been pressing for a major Indian role. A two-member Indian team, which visited Kabul in early September, claimed they were on a mission sponsored by the government to make an assessment of the layout for Indian military involvement. The team apparently held discussions with top American diplomats and military officials based in Kabul.
All in all I see more troubles ahead in this region thanks to US policies.


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