April 16, 2009

Tropical Cyclone Bijli

A tropical storm/cyclone is intensifying in the Bay of Bengal. Bangladesh has issued a cyclone alert.

According to the prediction in Weather Underground it is going to miss most parts of Bangladesh and will be a tropical storm only. But we have seen that these weather systems so often intensify and/or change course.

Image courtesy Weather Underground.

Public advisory:

Tropical cyclone (tc) 01b (bijli) located approximately 265 nm
south-southwest of kolkata, India, has tracked north-northeastward
at 11 knots over the past 06 hours. The initial position is based on
animated visible satellite imagery and a 16/0800z trmm microwave pass
with a high degree of confidence. The initial intensity remains at 45
knots based on the Dvorak estimate from pgtw. Upper level analysis
indicates the system is tracking along the northwest periphery of a
subtropical ridge centered over Myanmar. The ridge is expected to
gradually move south, enhancing a more northeasterly progression for
tc 01b. There is no significant change to previous forecast
philosophy-the system will intensify slightly during the next 36
hours as it continues to track over warm sea surface temperatures and
under low vertical wind shear before it makes landfall then dissipate
near the bangladesh-Myanmar border. The majority of available numeric
models are in agreement with this forecast. Maximum significant wave
height at 161200z is 14 feet. Next warnings at 162100z and 170300z.//


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