January 27, 2013

Coup Predictions In 2013

Jay Ulfelder is an American political scientist who theorizes and forecasts political development and instability in various forms, including democratization, coups d’etat, mass atrocities, and civil unrest. Among his 2012 predictions the coup attempts in Mali (March) and Guinea-Bissau (April) came true. He drew the chart for 2013 with estimated coup risk for the 30 countries at greatest risk using essentially the same models he used for 2012. Bangladesh is now shifted to high risk zone with lower values indicating more accurate predictions. A section of politicians are taking about the 1/11 and are really hoping on the military to unsettle the government and usher in a possible regime change. The PM mentioned:
"The aim of the opposition's movement is to foil the hard-earned democracy, bring back the 1/11 and save the 1971 culprits. For this reason, they are burning people to death and vandalising and torching public property."
We have seen that a coup attempt by a section of military was foiled in end 2011, which was to introduce sharia law by Islamist military officers with ties to Hizbut Tahrir. Jay's prediction only tells that the conspiracy is still on. Beware Bangladesh.


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